Human Settlements Theme Report
Australia State of the Environment Report 2001 (Theme Report)
Lead Author: Professor Peter W. Newton, CSIRO Building, Construction and Engineering, Authors
Published by CSIRO on behalf of the Department of the Environment and Heritage, 2001
ISBN 0 643 06747 7
Emerging issues
Australia's population is projected to increase from 19 million in 2000 to 21 million in 2011 and 25 million in 2050 - a rate of increase of about 1% per year1. Added to this increase in resident population is the estimated visitor population forecast to grow from five million international tourists in 2000 to 32 million by 2050 - an annual average rate of growth of 10% (currently 7%) (Tourism Forecasting Council 2000). As the population of Australia grows and total resources, used increases, greater stress will be placed on the environment. Environmental pressures will be greater still if per capita consumption levels are sustained or increase, as is evident across a range of key indicators (see the Executive Summary).
In this section we examine several of the emerging issues where human settlement intersects with environment.
Future scale and shape of human settlement
Towards megalopolis
Australian cities are likely to continue to house eight out of every ten residents. Sustained growth of the mega-metropolitan regions will continue to be an important issue within Australia's human settlements, especially those in the south-eastern corridor. It is expected that the big metropolitan regions will continue to expand, and will continue to attract investment and jobs associated with the new economy. In this scenario, Sydney's dominance as Australia's international gateway will also continue as it becomes involved in further global city functions. Other large cities, including Adelaide and Hobart, will continue to face disadvantage unless adequate productive investment and industry can be attracted to these regions. While there are some success stories in these places (i.e. call centres and the 'back office' functions of financial institutions), much more will be required. Any planning must account for the disparities that have emerged, looking at areas of high growth as well as areas of disadvantage.
The urbanisation of coastal environments
The increased urbanisation of the coastal strips - especially those on the eastern seaboard - is also set to continue. This growth is likely to be constrained to areas of high amenity and will be associated with further 'sun-belt' migration from the 'colder' southern states to coastal regions in northern New South Wales and south-eastern Queensland. This growth will raise a number of issues such as the impact of development on the surrounding natural environment and the impact of the changing population profile on the local economy. This may be especially important in some cases, such as localities in south-eastern Queensland that have been identified as welfare or retirement migration regions.
Differential patterns of growth and decline in inland urban areas
In inland Australia there is a wide diversity of performance, which is to be expected. But what is perhaps surprising - but nonetheless encouraging - is the considerable degree of opportunity for growth that exists in a number of inland towns, especially in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. Key factors enabling growth have been the ability for towns to tie into emerging economic markets and develop particular niche market opportunities; for example, Shepparton for food processing. A number of remote towns have also shown remarkable growth, again based on niche market opportunities such as mining and ecotourism. The ability of other inland towns to have similar growth will depend on their capacity to attract investment and jobs in key emerging industries.
The role of space-transforming technologies
Three space-transforming technologies provide opportunities for enhancing the benefits while minimising several of the negatives associated with contemporary settlements systems.
Firstly, linking capital cities with provincial centres via high-speed rail links effectively transforms the latter into the equivalent of inner and middle ring suburbs of the former (Newton et al. 1997). Upgrading the existing rail links to 160 km/h services between Melbourne and the provincial cities of Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong would convert them to the equivalent of outer-suburban commuting zones. The proposed high-speed rail link from Perth south to Mandurah would create a new linear city connecting 10 new transit nodes (Bolt 2000). The benefits are likely to be numerous. It concentrates future development into corridors which have demonstrated environmental benefits (energy, greenhouse) over the alternative which is sprawl; provides a much needed boost to the economies of 'provincial' centres as they become more closely integrated into the economic engines of the capital cities; and it extends metropolitan housing and labour markets, increasing access to jobs and services.
High-speed rail could transform provincial cities into middle-ring suburbs of mega-metro regions.
Source: Alstom Australia.
Secondly, as Australia's Internet economy matures, residential areas are likely to be redefined as locales which combine the more traditional roles of reproduction and consumption with production (as a result of the growth in home-based work - a more sustainable landscape of self-contained 'villages'. The dominant impact is likely to remain focused on urban areas; although the opportunity for remote access to personal computers and personal digital assistants anywhere, anytime is now with us.
Remote Internet and mobile communications redefine time and space relationships.
Source: CSIRO.
Thirdly, the emergence of green high-rise buildings deliver significant environmental benefits over conventional development, through the closed loop treatment and reuse of wastewater; new facades that better control energy, ventilation and noise transmission; greater energy and greenhouse effectiveness (Newton et al. 2000); and increasing flexibility in design to accommodate multiple uses (residential, retail, office, recreation).
Green high-rise buildings redefine space, density and environment relationships.
Source: Grollo Eureka project.